Barack Obama is a neighborhood organizer at heart. He knows the importance of getting boots on the ground and talking to people. He wants volunteers to contact every voter in America and personally deliver his message of hope and change. dday wrote a diary about how Obama’s strategy is not about top down messaging through national ads. He is not trying to change minds en masse but one voter at a time, one contact at a time. Obama is counting on winning through registering new voters and getting them to the polls. Now we have to ask the question, "Will these new voters show up to vote for Obama?"
I first met Paul Tonko outside the first candidate’s forum in late March, shortly before he announced his candidacy for Congress in New York’s 21st Congressional District. I was hanging out after the debate had ended, determined to not only get back on the blogs to cover the event unlike any mainstream media outlet, but also because I’d had a crazy idea: why not set up some extensive interviews with the candidates as well?
For a college student wearing long hair, a scruffy beard, and a Bob Marley tee-shirt, I can see where the candidates might have seen me as going out on a limb. After I asked Paul Tonko, a 20-plus-year veteran of the Assembly who’s name is synonymous with the politics of the Capital Region, I wondered myself just what I’d gotten myself into.
The rest of the Soundpolitic Interview with Paul Tonko is below the fold as it appeared originally on The Albany Project.
Yesterday I ranked Senate races per Rasmussen polls, based on the latest Louisiana Ras poll. Today, let me do a better version of that post, this time using the Pollster.com polling composites (a more accurate way to gauge the state of these races).
I've ranked them in order of likelihood of switching, including all races within 20 points:
State Incumbent Margin over challenger
NM Open (R) -26.3
VA Open (R) -25.3
AK Stevens (R) -18.2
NH Sununu (R) -10.6
CO Open (R) -6.4
MS Wicker (R) +1.5
MN Coleman (R) +6.8
OR Smith (R) +7.6
GA Chambliss (R) +7.7
NC Dole (R) +8.7
KY McConnell (R) +12.1
ID Open (R) +12.5
ME Collins (R) +12.9
NJ Lautenberg (D) +12.9
TX Cornyn (R) +13.8
LA Landrieu (D) +15.2
OK Inhoffe (R) +16.3
IA Harkin (D) +17.2
KS Roberts (R) +19.6
So there are 14 Republican-held seats that are more endangered than Louisiana. New Jersey, always such a tease, is actually close than Louisiana, though Republicans seemed to have wised up to the Garden State's shenanigans. Too bad. The more money they sunk into NJ, the less money they'd have to try and hold those other 14. And there are signs that Oklahoma may be more competitive.
Bottom line? NM, VA, AK, and NH look like solid pickups. Colorado is shoring up, likely (D) in my book. I think we pull off Mississippi, which gets us to six.
If the elections were today, I think that's where things would settle. Can we get four more from that list in the next 2 1/2 months to get to a Lieberman-proof 60? I'm increasingly optimistic. It's not just the favorable political climate, but also this:
DSCC: $43 million
NRSC: $25.4 million
That's the Senate party committees cash on hand at the end of July. Democrats quite simply have the cash to create mass havoc behind enemy lines. Republicans barely have enough to keep the lights on at party HQ, much less actually play defense. While Republicans spent $2.8 million in July, Democrats have been barraging Republicans with over $8.5 million in ads and other spending.
The DSCC artillery assault has already begun, and Republicans have half the cash the Dems have to respond.
Stevens' gamble for an early trial suffered its first setback, when a judge refused a motion to move the trial to Alaska.
Sen. Ted Stevens cannot move his corruption trial from Washington to his home state of Alaska, a federal judge ruled Wednesday in a decision that could hamstring the powerful Republican's re-election bid [...]
Stevens, 84, had hoped to stand trial by day and campaign on nights and weekends. In a state where he is known as ''Uncle Ted,'' he could have faced a more sympathetic jury. Stevens was named the Alaskan of the Century in 2000, the Anchorage airport bears his name, and he has brought billions in federal aid to the frontier state.
Wednesday's ruling puts a damper on his campaign plans. Stevens asked for, and received, an unusually speedy trial that he hopes will clear his name before voters go to the polls. But with the trial in Washington, Democrats will have the state largely to themselves while Stevens is tethered to a defense table in the weeks leading up to the November election.
There's still about three weeks for Stevens to withdraw from the race. He'd have to do it after next Tuesday's primary, or one of his no-name primary challengers might end up being the nominee. But if he does it between next Wednesday and September 17-ish (give or take a day), state Republicans can replace him with however they want.
But the defense also rejected an offer by the judge to hold trial only four days a week so Stevens could spend more time in Alaska. The deal would've delayed the verdict, and the overriding Stevens bet seem to be that acquittal will boost his electoral prospects. So given that they've decided for early decision over more time at home, it suggests that Stevens intends to stick it out to the bitter end.
And if he's convicted? Who cares? It wouldn't be any worse than the big, double-digit deficit he currently faces against O2B Democrat Mark Begich.
That will mark next week. We will not only be making our case as Democrats for why we should be the majority party in the White House, but also we will be celebrating the first woman in history to win a primary and the first African-American to be a party's nominee. Our children and our children will read about this historic moment.
Leaving aside the idea that illegal immigrants are enjoying the best medical care that this country can offer, this is a shocking admission from John McCain...from a town hall meeting earlier today:
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Senator McCain I truly hope you get the opportunity to chase Bin Laden right to the gates of hell and push him in as you stated on your forum. I do have a question though. Disabled veterans, especially in this state, have horrible conditions [...] My son is an officer in the Air Force, and I am a vet and I was raised in a military family. I think it is a sad state of affairs when we have illegal aliens having a Medicaid card that can access specialist top physicians, the best of medical and our vets can't even get to a doctor. These are the people that we tied yellow ribbons for and Bush patted on the back. If we don't reenact the draft I don't think we will have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.
JOHN MCCAIN: Ma'am let me say that I don't disagree with anything you said and thank you and I am grateful for your support of all of our veterans.
Someone is sending out fake text messages to people's cell phones claiming to announce Obama's veep pick. Some say it's Clinton, others Gore, and they look like this:
"Dear supporter, today our campaign joins in a historic partnership with Al Gore. Together we will move America forward. Yes we can."
The messages seem to come from 62262, which is the Obama text number. I don't know how easy or hard it is to spoof text messages, but someone is doing it.
More Please! At the moment only airing in Georgia... CNN? This is the first true Obama "Kidney Punch" of the season, lets see if the Media bites. Clearly it indicates a foul quid-pro-quo... low blow yes... effective? YES Finally some Chicago style bloodsport...
Script
"It was one of Washington’s biggest scandals. And the Republican power broker Ralph Reed was in the middle of it. In deep with convicted felon and lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
"But when the Senate investigated, the senator in charge never even called Reed to testify....And that senator? John McCain. And who’s now raising money for McCain’s campaign? Ralph Reed. For 26 years in Washington, John McCain’s played the same old games. We just can’t afford more of the same."
NC-Sen: Another day, another steaming stack of stupid emanating from the smiling empty seat that is the very senior Senator from the great state of North Carolina.
Responding to criticism from her rather perceptive Democratic opponent, Kay Hagan, that Sen. Dole spends remarkably little time in the state she purports to represent, Liddy had this to offer.
After her speech, Dole said she’s spent lots of time in North Carolina lately.
"Lately", eh? Senator, it would have been nice if you'd paid a modicum of attention to the state at, you know, some point in the last 35 years, when not running for the Senate.
But one can't have everything, I suppose.
Dole said she also supports drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve, where drilling would have a small footprint that wouldn’t harm much wildlife.
"Even the caribou like to snuggle up to the pipeline," she said.
Indeed. Every caribou I have interviewed in the past six months has expressed his support for banging a big fat honking pipeline through his home, so as to give him warmth and comfort as he sleeps.
Would there was oil in New York City, so that I, too, could snuggle up next to a pipeline as I lay me down to sleep. I think some pipeline would look great in my apartment. Really tie the room together, you know.
The overall goal must be to cut reliance on foreign oil imported from nations run by the likes of Hugo Chavez and Vladimir Putin, she said.
"A lot of that comes from people who don’t necessarily like us," Dole said.
Gee, it might help if our foreign policy had not been an outright fiasco of late, Liddy. And whose fault is that, anyway?
Amid Liddy's laments about gas price, by the way, she has given a boatload in tax breaks to Big Oil. Naturally, MoveOn is all over this:
AK-Sen: A hearing was held this morning in federal court in Washington, DC, to determine whether indicted Senator Ted Stevens would get to move his trial back to his home turf of Alaska.
Meanwhile, the Anchorage Daily News notes the role of new media in affecting public opinion on the Stevens scandal, to the point where new media are a screening point for potential jurors in the Stevens case:
Several joint questions seek to find out if potential jurors are political active or read about politics, especially the insider Capitol Hill publications. Do they listen to talk radio, read political blogs or go to Internet forums? The government, in particular, wants to know if they read the conservative Drudge Report or the liberal Huffington Post online.
Apparently, even Bush's Justice Department thinks reading Daily Kos is OK.
NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen is cooking with gas, as she seeks to unseat incumbent Republican John Sununu. Per Rasmussen:
Shaheen (D) 51 (50)
Sununu (R) 40 (45)
Ras' 3-poll average puts the race at 51-41, while Pollster's average has it at Shaheen 52.6%, Sununu 42%.
Shaheen's double-digit lead has remained remarkably consistent this cycle, and she has proven to be a formidable candidate.
House Races
OH-15: Here's the first ad of this cycle from Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy, as she seeks to take the open seat she nearly won in 2006 against incumbent Deborah Pryce.
MN-03: The Minnesota blogs have named this "Ashwin Madia Blog Day", in honor of a fine progressive candidate (and Netroots Nation attendee) in Minnesota's Third District.
If you'd like to learn more about Madia's candidacy on Madia Day, check out MN Blue or MN Publius.
WY-AL: As we noted last night, Wyoming's Republican State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis has won her primary in the state's at-large district.
The Hotline thought her primary opponent, Mark Gordon, was the more formidable of the two:
The party's been searching for a way to stem the growing Dem tide in the region, and a return to its libertarian roots may be the answer. In addition, his profile as a rancher seems to be a better match against '06 nominee Gary Trauner (D) than ex-Treas. Cynthia Lummis (R), with her years of gov't service, can provide.
The most recent Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos shows Trauner leading Lummis, 44% to 41%.
WI-08: Meanwhile, Republican John Gard is still feeding the debunked myth (perhaps we should just start calling it an outright lie) that China is drilling off the coast of Cuba).
NY-25, NY-26, NY-29: Today is the pre-primary filing deadline for New York House candidates. We have no more than three terrific New Yorkers on the Orange to Blue list, and here's a golden opportunity to help them finish the pre-primary period with a bang. They are Jon Powers in NY-26, Eric Massa in NY-29, and Dan Maffei in NY-25.
Please head to the Orange to Blue ActBlue Page and give them a little (or a lot!) of love, as they head towards election day.
Here's what the Obama camp and the Democrats need to do to win this election. It is simple advice that unfortunately Democrats never heed to during a national election
New York has a pre-primary filing deadline for candidates tonight -- and wouldn't you know, the Orange to Blue list has three New York candidates on it: Dan Maffei, Eric Massa, and Jon Powers.
Maffei's fundraising has been dominating his Republican opponent for this open seat. But Massa and Powers face tough opponents. In the primary, Powers faces Jack Davis, a self-funding multi-millionaire who's engaged in a string of dirty campaign tactics and who on the issues is exactly the kind of Democrat we don't want to see elected. Meanwhile, for the general election, Massa faces Shotgun Randy Kuhl -- and if a Republican incumbent who's threatened his wife with a shotgun doesn't make you want to win, I don't know what will.
Powers' need is immediate: He faces a so-called Democratic opponent with bottomless pockets and a willingness to sink to the bottom of the slime pit in campaigning. We do not want Jack Davis in the House at all, let alone with a (D) next to his name.
As for Massa, he doesn't just face a Republican incumbent, he's being advertised against by Freedom's Watch. They've been on the radio in the district for a while, and a couple weeks ago the DCCC made an answering buy -- but Massa's campaign recently heard that Freedom's Watch is inquiring about buying TV time. Massa will need a lot of help to be able to answer Freedom's Watch].
These candidates are true friends of the netroots. They attend Netroots Nation, they post diaries here -- but more importantly, they're with us on the issues. We couldn't do better than to put Maffei, Massa, and Powers in Congress.
If you have a few dollars to spare, today is a great time to give since tonight's filing gives these candidates another chance to show big donors and the DCCC that they're doing what it takes and deserve further support.
I want somebody who has integrity, who’s in politics for the right reasons, I want somebody who is independent. Somebody who is able to say to me, ‘You know what, Mr. President, I think you’re wrong on this and here’s why,’ and who will help me think through major issues and consult with me, would be a key advisor. I want somebody who is capable of being president and who I would trust to be president. That’s the first criteria for VP. And the final thing is, I want a president (SIC) who shares with me a passion to make the lives of the American people better than they are right now. I want someone who is not in it just because they want to have their name up in lights or end up being president. I want somebody who is mad right now that people are losing their jobs. And is mad right now that people have seen their incomes decline, and wants to rebuild the middle class in this country. That’s the kind of person that I want; somebody who in their gut knows where they came from and believes that we have to grow this country from the bottom up.
this comment from rfahey22 over at open left got me thinking
Maybe they're buying time
and trying to persuade someone on the fence (such as Warner) to accept the nomination. Otherwise I would agree that a Friday/Saturday announcement would be strange.
obviously i have no inside knowledge but hey i'll give a shot for shits & giggles. i know trying to guess this is teh stoopid but f**k it, this is not speculation this is a prediction. follow me down the rabbit hole.
What is [ ] with the Obama Campaign? Don't they know that [ ] means they don't have [ ]? It's no time to [ ]! Just because it's August doesn't mean [ ].
If it were my campaign, I would [ ] immediately. I would also [ ], fire [ ], and generally [ ]. I mean, there's no choice now but to [ ], even if Obama prefers to [ ].
How can you let McCain [ ]? Even if [ ] happens, we still have to [ ], because [ ], [ ], [ ] and [ ] are at stake.
Several superfluous pictures, then jump, with what I really think.
